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The Premier League and Championship have paused for the season’s first international break but the teams of Leagues One and Two are continuing with their campaigns for promotion/relegation/pizza-related trophy glory.

So what trends can we see? And who’s defying the data?

Stockport County finished third on 87 points last season and eleven points from six games so far is similar form. So all is good, right?

Wrong.

The xG models have them performing worse than at any point in 24/25 with an expected goal difference of -0.7 per game versus their actual goal difference of +3 (0.5 per game). They’re outperforming xG in both attack and defence and, curiously, their sole defeat in the league so far came in one of only two games this season where they’ve shaded it in terms of shot quality.

What they’re doing is managing to be very economical with their shooting. They scored with their only shots on target against both Bolton and Leyton Orient, and managed a come-from-behind win after going down to ten men against Burton Albion thanks to a Oliver Norwood free-kick. Speaking of Burton, they managed to give up 2.99xG and twenty shots in that game (though they were a man down for an hour).

In defence, the goalkeeper has actually been underperforming (seven goals conceded versus 5.29xGOT faced) and their tackle and block numbers aren’t anything special so… their opponents are just bad at shooting, maybe? Either way, expect them to start shipping goals and sliding down the table until that defence tightens up.

With six games to go in 2024/25, Bolton were in the play-offs, but two points from those matches left them down in eighth when the music stopped. They’re fourteenth with only one win right now, buuuuuuuuutttt…

It’s still difficult to know whether the appointment of Steven Schumacher in January has been a success. They were seventh when he was placed in charge and their form has been spotty. Now though, both their attack and defence look better than at any other time during his reign, but it’s not quite translating into points and wins.

They’ve not lost since opening day (to Stockport, funnily enough) and followed it up with a dominant win against Plymouth, but have drawn every game 1-1 since. They’ve dominated possession in each of those draws yet have had to come from behind in three of them, including a game against Barnsley where they managed to salvage a point having been a goal down for 96 minutes.

It looks like they’re struggling to break teams down. They top the league for touches in the opposition box and their shot volume is good, but they only rank sixteenth for big chances created. Like Stockport, their goalkeeper is underperforming the stats but this time there are consequences. Chelsea loanee Teddy Sharman-Lowe has one of the lowest save percentages in League One, and has conceded six goals from 3.84xGOT faced.

Not exactly.

Firstly, it’s worth mentioning what a good job Gareth Ainsworth has done since taking over last season. Arguably, Gills were on an upward trajectory when he joined but it’s still an impressive turnaround for everyone’s favourite football manager/rock star hybrid.

But they’re not the best team in the league right now. Exhibit A: Grimsby Town.

Two xG per game? Yes, please. They may have been in the headlines for knocking Man United out of the energy drink cup and while you couldn’t really say that was an expected result, those are some great numbers to start the season. They lead the league in xG, touches in the opposition box, big chance creation… and big chances missed. In summary, don’t expect them to be down in eighth for long.

In a word: yes.

Cheltenham have been performing horribly since the back end of last season and they’ve only won three of their last sixteen games. Josh Day is their most creative player on only 0.25xG+A per game (Grimsby alone have seven players with a higher numbers than that) and while they are underperforming their xG as a whole (3.9xG versus two goals), their xG conceded is pretty in line with expectations.

There are green shoots in attack but it couldn’t have got much worse. They didn’t create a big chance until Game 4 and last time out in their match against Salford represented the first time this season they’d taken the lead in a match.

Sometimes the most interesting stories are found where the data doesn’t match up with what’s on the final scoreboard. But then again, sometimes it’s just nice when everything is going exactly like the data says.

Sorry, Cheltenham. Still, it’s not all bad.