As the start of the 2024/5 Championship season, recently-relegated Ipswich Town were the bookies’ favourites for an instant return to the Premier League. Of all of the sides from the division in receipt of parachute payments, they looked the most stable and were the only ones not to change manager before the season began.

Their signings in the summer transfer window included the 2022/23 Championship top scorer (Chuba Akpom), a Premier League and Serie A winner (Ashley Young) and the Championship’s most expensive signing ever (Sindre Walle Egeli). Despite this, Ipswich have been knocked out of the Carabao Cup by League Two Bromley and, after four league games, sit winless in 20th place.

There’s no need to mince words, Ipswich were terrible in the Premier League last season and were only overshadowed by Southampton being generationally bad. Ipswich won just four matches, amassing a meagre 22 points across 38 games.

Of the team above, only six remain and at least two of the five that have left have arguably been upgraded. The inconsistent and frustrating Arijanet Muric was usurped in January by Alex Palmer and Samy Morsy, who struggled with the pace of the Premier League, is now in Kuwait, replaced by Azor Matusiwa, a defensive midfielder who came through the Ajax youth system.

Computer says no.

What jumps out here—ignoring what an absolute disaster 24/25 was—is that this season represents a better start in data terms than 22/23 and 23/24, both of which were seasons that ended in promotion. In fact, Ipswich have had a higher xG score than their opponents in every single game so far this term, yet are yet to emerge with a win. Not only that, they’ve needed last-minute equalisers twice so far to save them from an even more embarrassing points total.

In short:

Two penalties and one own goal there, and the other goal against Derby came from a corner. The penalties will skew the xG and all signs point towards Ipswich’s attackers not doing what they should be.

The above numbers show that Ipswich are getting into good positions but just not hitting the target. You can’t legislate for that and you’d expect a regression to the mean sooner rather than later. You’d also expect a side with a lot of new faces to take time to gel, but there has also been a shift in terms of how the build-up now works.

In the successful League One and Championship promotion seasons, Ipswich almost had a trademark goal. Left back Leif Davis on the overlap, pull back to the penalty spot and the box-crashing Number 10 puts it away. Think a budget version of the goals Raheem Sterling used to often score for Manchester City.

This was done by switching the 4-2-3-1 into a 3-2-5 when in possession. The right-back (Janoi Donacien, Harry Clarke or Axel Tuanzebe) would shift across to make the three-man defence, the midfield two would hold firm and Leif Davis would maraud forward, overwhelming the opposition back-line.

Leif Davis (one of only three players in the picture above who remains at the club) is still the team’s top performer in terms of chance creation and expected assists. However, rather than hugging the touchline and being solely responsible for the entire left-hand side of the pitch as he was two seasons ago, he’s coming inside frequently and playing more conservatively. That’s translating into one fewer key pass and one fewer chance created per game compared to the 2023/24 season, where his performances led to some calls for him to be included in England’s Euro 2024 squad.

Compare the two heatmaps below. In both instances, Ipswich are attacking left to right. In the Sheffield Wednesday game from 2023/24, Davis sticks close to the touchline the further forward he gets. Contrast this with the Southampton game from earlier this season where he looks to cut inside and move centrally as soon as he gets to the final third.

Leif Davis was found wanting in the Premier League last season. He was less effective going forward and didn’t cover himself in glory in defence. It’s possible that Kieran McKenna is already looking towards Premier League consolidation, instilling a style of play that could take a while to get used to in the here and now, but would be more sustainable against the top teams.

There’s also this…

Take away the penalty and George Hirst has no goals from 1.6xG and, despite having taken all his shots from inside the penalty area, has just two shots on target from seven attempts.

None of this seems irretrievable, however. The underlying numbers are mostly fine, and just their attack taking chances at a level consistent with the league average would have Ipswich in the top six based on current performances.

And that league record signing I mentioned at the start? He did this over the international break.

Yes, please.